Mean Absolute Percentage Error
Average across customer production forecasts, verified annually by Forrester Consulting against an industry benchmark of 11.8%.
Source · Forrester Consulting TEI, 2024
Forecasting Intelligence · Vol. 07
Forecasting intelligence that turns uncertainty into a competitive edge.
Avisus ingests your operational, financial, and external market signals and returns auditable forecasts in hours — not the eight-week cycle you have come to expect.
4.7%
Average beat vs. consensus estimates within two quarters of deployment, across 2,400+ customer workloads.
Photograph: Avisus research terminal, San Francisco · 04:12 PT
The Cost of Inaccuracy
Forecast error is a board-level liability, not a tooling inconvenience.
Every quarter, your team re-opens the same Excel monstrosity. You pull last cycle's model, defensively decouple it from the live data warehouse, layer in a regional override from Singapore, and pray the variance holds under audit. Eight weeks later you ship a plan that is, by your own admission, three to six months stale.
Meanwhile, the CFO is asked to commit to the board on numbers that are already compromised. The supply chain VP re-orders against a demand signal you cannot defend. The RevOps lead publishes a forecast that the street immediately marks down — by an average of four to seven points, every quarter, year after year.
The cost is rarely the model. The cost is the cycle. 8 weeks of reconciliation, fragile spreadsheet lineage, and a consensus estimate you are structurally destined to miss.
— A note to the head of FP&A who already knows this is true.
The Signal Mesh
A patented architecture for forecasts you can defend in audit.
Four stages, one auditable lineage. Signal Mesh handles 14 billion events per day per tenant with sub-200ms inference latency — and writes every input, transformation, and assumption into a versioned lineage that your controllers can read.
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01Ingest
Operational, financial, and external market signals arrive through 140+ native connectors and a streaming REST/gRPC surface. Lineage is captured at the column, not the file.
- Native connectors: SAP, NetSuite, Oracle, Salesforce, Snowflake, Databricks
- External signals: macro, weather, commodity, foot-traffic, sentiment
- Schema diffing with semantic versioning
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02Model
A portfolio of 38 forecasting primitives — hierarchical Bayesian, gradient-boosted ensembles, transformer-based temporal models, and classical ARIMA — is composed against your data shape and selected by an automated tournament.
- Champion-challenger tournament per forecast horizon
- Backtesting held out across at least four prior cycles
- MAPE, MASE, pinball loss, and CRPS reported on a single canvas
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03Audit
Every assumption is a first-class object. Reviewers can replay the model run, slice by region or SKU, and trace any output back to a raw input, a transformation, or a human override.
- Immutable lineage graph with cryptographic sign-off
- SOC 2 Type II and ISO 27001 audit-ready exports
- Side-by-side human vs. model counterfactual
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04Deploy
Forecasts return to the systems of record that consume them — your EPM, your BI layer, your capacity model, your pricing engine — as signed, versioned outputs.
- Write-back to Anaplan, Pigment, Adaptive, SAP BPC
- Scenario APIs for board-grade what-if in seconds, not weeks
- Phased rollout with parallel-run shadow mode
Proof, By The Numbers
Independently verified. Cited in writing.
Every figure below carries a source and a methodology. None are projections from our own marketing team.
Faster scenario planning
Median cycle reduction from 8 weeks to 4 days, sustained across 87% of customers within 90 days of onboarding.
Source · Avisus Customer Outcomes Report, 2024
Return on investment
Validated average ROI within 18 months of deployment, in an independent study commissioned by the customer.
Source · Nucleus Research, 2023
Customer retention
Three-year trailing retention, measured against the SaaS analytics category benchmark of 71%.
Source · Avisus Finance & Audit, FY23
- G2 #1 in the G2 Winter 2024 Grid Report for Predictive Analytics · 4.8/5 across 612 verified reviews
- Gartner Named a 2024 Cool Vendor in Analytics & Data Science
- INFORMS Winner, 2023 Daniel H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice
“The hard part of forecasting was never the math. It was the institutional courage to ship a number, defend it, and then be measured against it. Avisus is built for the people who already accept that discipline — we just give them back the eight weeks they used to lose to reconciliation.”
Customer Evidence
Three operating functions, one discipline.
“The plan we shipped in November held to within 1.9% of forecast through Q1. That has never happened here.”
Using Signal Mesh to fuse deal-stage telemetry, renewal cohorts, and product-qualified-lead velocity, the RevOps function compressed its quarterly close from six weeks to nine days and began publishing weekly confidence intervals alongside the consensus figure.
1.9%Full-quarter forecast error
9 daysQuarterly close, from 6 weeks
+11ptsStreet-measured forecast credibility
“We stopped publishing a number we could not defend. Now we publish a confidence band, and the band holds.”
A move from a master spreadsheet to a scenario graph spanning 312 port pairs and 14 trade lanes. Network planners now answer “what happens if the Suez delays extend by two weeks” in 90 seconds, in front of the operating committee.
312Port pairs modeled concurrently
90sScenario answer, from 11 days
−6.2%Carrying cost, year one
“We model 240 patient cohorts on a Monday. By Friday, the field teams are staffing against the revision.”
A weekly capacity-planning cadence replacing a quarterly budgeting ritual. By joining payer signals, adherence patterns, and prescribing behavior into a single demand model, the function reduced staffing overage from 14% to 3.8%.
240Patient cohorts modeled
WeeklyCadence, from quarterly
3.8%Staffing overage, from 14%
Nissan
Maersk
Novartis
U.S. Dept. of Energy
DeepMind Research Consortium
Maersk
Stripe Treasury
Palantir Foundry
The Next Move
Book a 30-minute forecast audit.
Send us two of your recent quarterly forecasts and the assumptions that drove them. An Avisus solutions engineer will return, in 30 minutes, a written diagnosis: where the error is coming from, what Signal Mesh would do differently, and what the first deployment would look like against your data. No deck. No obligation.
Direct line · +1 (415) 555-0188 · [email protected]